The Plunge Hits Pakistan’s Gold Market
The local gold market in Pakistan reopened with a startling shift on 22–23 October 2025. 24-karat gold per tola fell to ≈ Rs 452,500, signalling a sharp reversal after recent highs. As someone who visited a jewellery shop in Lahore yesterday. I observed the usual excited talk about “buy now” fade into uncertainty customers asked more questions about timing than making immediate purchases.
- The drop shows more than just bullion prices. It also reflects local currency changes and import duties.
- Retail buyers are suddenly more cautious; trade-in valuations are being negotiated.
- Jewellers reported fewer walk-ins for new jewellery purchases yesterday afternoon.
Media headlines emphasised “sharp decline,” which may feed into consumer hesitation. For many investors in Pakistan, this moment brings both risk and opportunity. Timing and clarity are key.
Table: Pakistan vs International – Price Comparison
Below is a comparison to help you position today’s Pakistan rates in a global context.
| Metric | Pakistan (24 K per tola) | International (USD per ounce) |
| Approximate rate (23 Oct) | Rs 452,500 | ~$4,300+ (record highs) Reuters |
| Recent peak locally | Rs 456,900 | Near $4,217–$4,300 |
| Implied change | ↓ ~1-2%+ locally | ↓/correction in international trend |
This table shows that both markets moved. Pakistan’s decline stands out when you check the rupee-to-dollar rate and import costs.
Why The Dollar And Global Factors Matter?
A big reason for the drop at home is the stronger US dollar. This has lowered safe-haven demand and caused global bullion corrections. On 15 October 2025, spot gold surpassed $4,200/oz as rate-cut hopes rose. This global movement reduces the landed cost of gold in Pakistan in PKR terms. When the rupee strengthens or stabilises.
- A stronger USD raises gold prices in PKR. However, a stabilising rupee helps ease some of that pressure.
- Investor risk appetite rising means less immediate push into “safe” gold buys.
- When global momentum slows, local markets usually adjust more quickly. This happens because of import and rupee effects.
My own rough calculation yesterday afternoon showed. That currency and import cost shifts explain about half the drop. Rather than just the fall in bullion. If you are holding gold for investment rather than jewellery celebration. These global-currency shifts matter as much as the bullion price itself.
Local Market Dynamics: Import Costs, Jeweller Margins & Sentiment
Domestic gold pricing does not just follow global bullion. In Pakistan, import duty, transport and jeweller margin shape it. Above all, the PKR-USD exchange rate. For example, if import costs go down but demand stays the same, premiums shrink. As a result, retail rates drop quickly. On 17 October, the tola rate had crossed Rs 456,000 during a surge.
- Importers delay stock when global prices rise, tightening supply and pushing rates up.
- Jewellers sometimes reduce margins when they see volume risk which speeds up a drop.
- Retail buyers often react to rupee/dollar headlines rather than bullion charts alone.
Jewellery-festival seasons amplify small shifts into larger ones (buying or waiting). I talked to three jewellers in Lahore. They all said, “Buyers are waiting for a ‘good entry rate’ now.” This shows how sentiment affects market swings.
International Outlook: What’s Happening Outside Pakistan
Globally, gold’s rally remains intact but the pace is showing signs of consolidation. According to HSBC the average price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised. Yet, the bank warned fewer US rate cuts could slow momentum. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions (US-China, etc.) remain a wildcard.
- Central banks continue to buy but retail demand is volatile.
- Geopolitical risk remains a tailwind. But currency shifts and interest rate outlooks matter more.
- Technical charts suggest that some overbought conditions increase the risk of correction.
Markets are asking: “What’s next?” rather than “How much higher?” If you buy gold now for a long term hold. You need to monitor global safe-haven flows, central bank announcements and USD strength.
What This Means For Pakistani Investors And Buyers?
If you are in Pakistan and considering buying or investing in gold. This drop is a meaningful moment but not without caveats. Approach with clarity.
- A lower rate now can be a chance but only if you have a realistic outlook (3-5+ years) and buy at a reasonable premium.
- If you bought at peaks, your mark-to-market loss might be around 5-10%. Acceptance can help prevent panic decisions.
- For jewellery purchases: check purity, store it well and think about resale value not just hype.
For bullion bars/coins: currency and import cost shifts may impact value more than the pure global bullion price. In my case, I am waiting for one more weekly turn and a stabilising USD/PKR before making any large purchase. If you have a wedding or festival coming up, consider making smaller purchases. You can also try to negotiate hard for better deals.
FAQs – Quick answers to common questions
Q1: Why did gold rates drop so sharply in Pakistan this week?
A: Global bullion corrections, a stronger USD and import/rupee effects improved sentiment.
Q2: Will gold rates go back up soon in Pakistan?
A: Possibly yes, if the rupee weakens, import costs rise or global safe-haven demand spikes. But the short term remains volatile.
Q3: Is now a good time to buy gold in Pakistan?
A: If you are investing long-term and can buy with minimal premium. Yes. If you chase short-term gain, maybe wait for clearer trends.
Q4: How does USD/PKR affect gold price in Pakistan?
A: A weaker PKR increases the import cost of gold which pushes rates up. A stronger or stable PKR tends to ease rates.
Q5: Should I prefer jewellery or bullion for investment?
A: Bullion (bars/coins) is generally better value for investment. Jewellery adds design/making costs. Buy it if you also plan to wear it.
Conclusion
This sharp drop in Pakistan’s gold rates underscores. How tightly domestic markets link to global bullion trends and currency shifts. While the decline may feel unsettling. It also offers a strategic entry point for informed buyers. Focus on value not hype monitor USD/PKR movements, import duty changes and global safe-haven cues. If you act with patience and clarity, this correction might become a foundation for long term value rather than just a moment of panic.
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